Trump again

Major issues which will affect Australia and the World

Moderators: godfather, Dreamweaver

Post Reply
mavisbramston
Bronze Member
Posts: 2218
Joined: 26 Feb 2016, 20:32

Trump again

Post by mavisbramston » 18 Sep 2018, 10:27

I keep hearing what a brilliant job Trump is doing on the economy. Any thoughts?
Is it morally ethically reprehensible. Economically very good ? Any ideas?

User avatar
Perrorist
Administrator
Posts: 4302
Joined: 17 Sep 2008, 12:36
Location: Tumbi Umbi, Central Coast, NSW
Contact:

Re: Trump again

Post by Perrorist » 18 Sep 2018, 11:51

Two thoughts:

1. It's generally accepted that the first 18 months of a new government's economy result from the previous government's policies. Policy changes take quite a while to work their way into economic and social outcomes.

2. Trump's policies will start to bite about now and the consequences may not be quite what he had in mind. His claim that his tax cuts have stimulated the economy is wrong for two reasons. The first is as stated above: the legacy of Obama's presidency. The second is that the beneficiaries have overwhelming been companies using the extra funds to buy back shares.

I can't see how trade wars will benefit the US economy unless China capitulates to his demands, which is unlikely, as the Chinese don't like to be bullied. Even if they do, the damage to the US economy in the long term will be considerable. Trading relations between China and other countries and blocs (e.g. Russia and the EC) are already being developed and strengthened. (The bully in the classroom rarely gets invited to the other kids' parties.)

There's talk of a global economic collapse in 2020, similar to the GFC, due to Trump's actions. He'll almost certainly be out of office then and someone else will have to repair the damage.

User avatar
Warrigal
Emerald Member
Posts: 6811
Joined: 06 Jul 2013, 16:44
Location: Sydney

Re: Trump again

Post by Warrigal » 18 Sep 2018, 12:46

I was browsing CSPAN, the US equivalent of our parliamentary broadcasting and came across something interesting.
It was video of one of Sarah Huckabee Sanders' media events and she handed over to the WH economic advisor. He then showed a number of slides that demonstrated a series of economic indicators showing upward inflexion points around the time of Donald Trump's inauguration. I thought is a little too good to be true but the last episode of Planet America showed similar trends. Basically, the premise that the economic improvements are simply continuations of the Obama figures did not hold up.

See for yourselves CSPAN: https://www.c-span.org/video/?451331-1/ ... dward-book

Planet America: https://iview.abc.net.au/show/planet-america
If you don't have an ASIO file by now then you should be ashamed of yourself.

User avatar
Perrorist
Administrator
Posts: 4302
Joined: 17 Sep 2008, 12:36
Location: Tumbi Umbi, Central Coast, NSW
Contact:

Re: Trump again

Post by Perrorist » 18 Sep 2018, 18:29

True that the markets responded favourably on Trump's election. Also, the growth is coming off a low base, and the increasing deficit is the result of bigger government spending, which is bound to be stimulatory. However, in the long run the indicators are not favourable, and the stock market is heading for a serious adjustment. We shall just have to wait and see.

User avatar
Warrigal
Emerald Member
Posts: 6811
Joined: 06 Jul 2013, 16:44
Location: Sydney

Re: Trump again

Post by Warrigal » 18 Sep 2018, 19:10

In the end, I am sure that it will all end badly.
If you don't have an ASIO file by now then you should be ashamed of yourself.

User avatar
Perrorist
Administrator
Posts: 4302
Joined: 17 Sep 2008, 12:36
Location: Tumbi Umbi, Central Coast, NSW
Contact:

Re: Trump again

Post by Perrorist » 13 Oct 2018, 10:09


User avatar
Dreamweaver
Global Moderator
Posts: 9231
Joined: 16 Sep 2005, 15:46
Location: Victoria

Re: Trump again

Post by Dreamweaver » 13 Oct 2018, 19:16

I can't comment on the economic causes and effects, but I do believe that Trump's election put new heart into many people,which has not yet proved justified. Many seemed to think it was all just too ridiculous, couldn't last, but would make necessary a change in the constitution to bring about a fairer less corruptible democratic system for USA.
If it's a revolution, let's hope it's a bloodless one, (as so many are - agricultural, industrial, electronic and so on)!
I dream, therefore I am.

User avatar
Perrorist
Administrator
Posts: 4302
Joined: 17 Sep 2008, 12:36
Location: Tumbi Umbi, Central Coast, NSW
Contact:

Re: Trump again

Post by Perrorist » 13 Oct 2018, 20:50

Not a revolution, but a revitalising of progressive forces.

User avatar
kfchugo
Bronze Member
Posts: 1505
Joined: 11 May 2015, 19:03
Location: Lake Macquarie NSW

Re: Trump again

Post by kfchugo » 15 Oct 2018, 14:24

The imminent mid-term elections should give an indication of how the bulk of Americans view Trumps performance. Should the Dems gain control of the House and/or the Senate, the balance of Trumps first term will be VERY interesting.

User avatar
Perrorist
Administrator
Posts: 4302
Joined: 17 Sep 2008, 12:36
Location: Tumbi Umbi, Central Coast, NSW
Contact:

Re: Trump again

Post by Perrorist » 15 Oct 2018, 15:25

They have a fair chance of getting the Reps, but there aren't as many Republican seats up for grabs in the Senate. However, if they did gain control of the Senate, that would be very interesting.

Post Reply