How close is the future?

Major issues which will affect Australia and the World

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Dreamweaver
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How close is the future?

Post by Dreamweaver » 08 Nov 2016, 21:41

Elon Musk reckons the robot revolution is inevitable and it's going to take all the jobs.

For humans to survive in an automated world, he said that governments are going to be forced to bring in a universal basic income—paying each citizen a certain amount of money so they can afford to survive. According to Musk, there aren't likely to be any other options.

"There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," he told CNBC in an interview. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen."

The idea behind universal basic income is to replace all the different sources of welfare, which are hard to administer and come with policing costs. Instead, the government gives everyone a lump sum each month—the size of which would vary depending on political beliefs—and they can spend it however they want.

Switzerland, a country with high wages and high employment, recently held a referendum on giving its people 2,500 Swiss francs (£2,065) per month, plus 625 francs (£516) per child. It was ultimately rejected by a wide margin by the country's fairly conservative electorate, who generally thought it would give people too much for free.

President Obama has also floated the idea in a confab with Wired: "Whether a universal income is the right model—is it gonna be accepted by a broad base of people?—that's a debate that we'll be having over the next 10 or 20 years."

Robots have already replaced numerous blue collar manufacturing jobs, and are taking over more and more warehousing and logistics roles. Some—perhaps prematurely—are fretting about future AIs being developed to replace professions such as doctors and lawyers. Already, moves are being made in that direction, with chatbots which can get people off parking tickets, and an AI that can predict cases at the European Court of Human Rights. Doctors should be looking over their shoulders, too.

Musk isn't necessarily downbeat on the automated future, however. He thinks that in the future "people will have time to do other things, more complex things, more interesting things," and they'll "certainly have more leisure time." And then, he added, "we gotta figure how we integrate with a world and future with a vast AI."

"Ultimately," he said, "I think there has to be some improved symbiosis with digital super intelligence."


http://arstechnica.co.uk/business/2016/ ... t-workers/
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Buck_naked
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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Buck_naked » 08 Nov 2016, 21:57

Toss in the fact that so many jobs are 'exported' to low wage countries like China and mexico
then the future is looking grim.
Which would explain why real wage growth in america has stalled for 30 years.
The 1% are doing ok tho, and they can buy the congress and president, and stop anyone like Bernie Sanders gaining power.

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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Perrorist » 09 Nov 2016, 08:03

Some of this I heard many years ago: increased leisure time, guaranteed income, etc, all derived from advances in technology, yet nothing's changed.

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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Dreamweaver » 09 Nov 2016, 08:28

More pain before the gain, I think. Jobs are harder to get unless you're in human services areas. Level of employment is no protection. Nurses are needed more than G.P.s, whose work is tending to minor treatments, or referral to specialists or allied health services. My s-i-l was a high paid advertising exec 10 years ago, but when he married and bought a family home in Melbourne he didn't want to go with the company in their shift to Sydney, took a lesser advertising job, where he remained until it folded. Has been unemployed now for some months.
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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Buck_naked » 09 Nov 2016, 10:28

If we want to see what the future might look like with no one working, study aboriginal communities.
very little work, sit down money, drug and alcohol abuse, violence, crime, mental health issues, suicides.

:thinking: :thinking:

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Re: How close is the future?

Post by grandduke » 09 Nov 2016, 14:32

It will come but you and i won’t see it "Buck the pessimist” then
it will be called think positive money. :icon-mrgreen: :icon-mrgreen:
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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Dreamweaver » 19 Aug 2017, 00:05

Complex and creative tasks, like writing books and performing high-level math, will take longer. Ultimately, the researchers found AI could automate all human tasks by the year 2051 and all human jobs by 2136.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/06/ ... ign=buffer
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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Perrorist » 19 Aug 2017, 05:52

Any task that can codified can be automated. With a database of exceptions, it can deal with more complex tasks. Arriving at a point where a New York Times best-seller can be written requires a shift from craft-only to craft and a decent level of artistry, and that's way more complicated. It might surpass Dan Brown, but not Richard Flanagan.

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Re: How close is the future?

Post by terra » 19 Aug 2017, 09:30

Geez.....
I hope I die before I get old !
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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Dreamweaver » 08 Nov 2017, 20:34

Andrew Ng, formerly the head of AI for Chinese search giant Baidu and, before that, creator of Google’s deep-learning Brain project, knows as well as anyone that artificial intelligence is coming for plenty of jobs. And many of us don’t even know it.

Speaking at MIT Technology Review’s annual EmTech MIT conference in Cambridge, MA, on Tuesday, Ng said he’s visited call centers and spoken to workers, knowing that his teams of software engineers will then write software that will automate aspects of their work.

“There are many professions in the crosshairs of AI teams across the world,” he said.

Ng, who’s currently working on a startup called Deeplearning.ai that helps train people on deep-learning technology, has some ideas for helping those in jobs he thinks will be automated, from call-center workers to radiologists, truck drivers, and the like.

His suggestion is for an updated version of the New Deal—the Depression-era economic programs that invested in, among other things, getting unemployed Americans back to work—that pays displaced workers to learn new job skills.

Even if AI does not advance beyond today’s state of the art, Ng said, he believes it’s already capable of transforming all kinds of industries. Just supervised learning, the technique where a computer is given an input (such as a picture of a face) and learns to use that to predict an output (such as whether that face is you), is enough.

“Even now, if we stopped writing research papers, we have enough to transform the industry,” he said. Future waves of innovation will bring even more profound changes to job markets, and we will need a way to continue to adapt to them.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6093 ... ium=social
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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Perrorist » 08 Nov 2017, 21:21

A recent estimate of job losses due to AI has significantly reduced the number forecast. I can't remember where I saw that, but if I find it I'll post it here.

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Re: How close is the future?

Post by godfather » 09 Nov 2017, 00:33

Sure, somewhere down the track we are going to experience Musk's concept but it is a long way off before all the pigs will touch down!

Give me an idea on how the governments will earn the money to pay the population?
A handful of rice once a week, garnished with a cockroach baked in red wine sauce. Wow, that sounds really scrumptious!

In the meantime tell your grandies to learn programing, it sounds like the only job that will survive!

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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Dreamweaver » 13 Nov 2017, 19:52

Interesting 15 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

This is by CGB Grey in 2014.

There is another by the same title, "Humans Need Not Apply", by Jerry Kaplan in 2016, which runs over an hour.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44kj7KiJt7k
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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Perrorist » 13 Nov 2017, 20:58

This is one reason reason why we need a new economy, one that caters for a changed work environment and not rooted in the past.

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Re: How close is the future?

Post by Dreamweaver » 18 Nov 2017, 19:30

A positive look at "It's Not An Investment If It's Destroying The Planet"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVflRnqDQ-w
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