Heading for a crash

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grandduke
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by grandduke » 10 Jul 2017, 10:40

Hang about guys, this is the largest Island continent in the world. :character-oldtimer:
“You see things; and you say, ‘Why?’ But I dream things that never were; and I say, ‘Why not?’”
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terra
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by terra » 10 Jul 2017, 10:43

It sure is GD..... here's the nitty-gritty on that !
http://www.australia.gov.au/about-austr ... -continent
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Buck_naked
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Buck_naked » 27 Apr 2018, 18:43

May not have to walk to Mt Kosciusko after all.
Heard there is a very gloomy report being aired on 'The Business ' ABC tonight Friday 27th april
Global depression 30% drop in asset values predicted. :eek

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Warrigal
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Warrigal » 27 Apr 2018, 20:03

Suppose there is a property crash. There will be some winners and some losers.

Losers will be property speculators who have their properties highly leveraged. Speculators should be prepared to take the losses with the gains. If they are obliged to sell for less than they paid then first home buyers will be advantaged. Some more young couples might be able to enter the property market which won't be a bad thing. They might even be able to buy the home that they are renting right now.

People who are selling their last home because they are going into care might not be able to realise as much capital as they might otherwise have anticipated but they won't be left homeless. Their heirs might be a bit cheesed off though.

For everyone else who is contemplating selling and buying something else, the market shift will be the same for both transactions. It may however cause people to delay such a move if they don't have enough equity built up.

I don't think we will see a crash but a long pause would be a relief.
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Perrorist
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Perrorist » 27 Apr 2018, 21:14

The US budget deficit is also concerning. There's talk that it's close to the point where bonds will be difficult to sell because of the US Treasury's inability to service them. If that happens, major crash. So far, the only thing keeping it at bay is that the US dollar is the global reserve currency, but that may not be enough, especially as the Chinese are moving away from it.

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Perrorist
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Perrorist » 28 Apr 2018, 07:17

So you thought 2008 was bad: Fed set for global financial disaster.

mavisbramston
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by mavisbramston » 28 Apr 2018, 10:25

This has been a really interesting thread. Thank you all.

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kfchugo
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by kfchugo » 29 Apr 2018, 06:39

If we just keep talking about "heading for a crash", it may become a self fulfilling prophecy. Nobody can read the future and markets and economies have their cycles........caution, common sense and investment diversification are our best defences against the ever predicted "crash".

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Buck_naked
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Buck_naked » 29 Apr 2018, 09:13

I looked at the saxo bank guy on the ABC business on Friday night.
Hmmmm, i'm not convinced.
His main indicators were rising fuel prices and rising interest rates.
Real estate has not 'crashed' in sydney or melbourne, stalled maybe.
Steve Keen predicted a 40% crash in real estate due to the GFC. they fell 5.5%
then recovered. Hence the walk to Mt Kosciusko for losing his bet.

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Perrorist
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Perrorist » 29 Apr 2018, 09:24

The threat to house prices is from interest-only loans that revert to full mortgage rates at the end of the interest-only period, typically five years. These loans make sense in a rising market accompanied by rises in real wages. However, wages have flat-lined for quite a while and there's no immediate prospect they'll increase much in the near future. The promised tax cuts may help, though they're projected to be implemented over a 10-year period (that old budget trick), so it's difficult to see how they will affect take-home pay during the next year or two.

At the moment, I'm more concerned about the fast-rising US debt and its effect on the world economy.

I remember Steve keen making that promise. I knew he was wrong because of pent-up demand. Demand is still there, but prices are too high at the moment.

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Buck_naked
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Buck_naked » 06 Jun 2018, 16:34

Gunna get crowded on Mt Kosciusko, economy booming 1% growth first quarter.
Trumble and ScoMo: the next Howard-Costello?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-06/g ... n=business

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Perrorist
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Perrorist » 06 Jun 2018, 17:38

No way. That increase is due entirely to higher ore prices. ScoMo can't claim it was due to the government's policies, although he has. Surprise!

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Perrorist
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Perrorist » 07 Jun 2018, 08:27

Next Recession Already in View

It's worth noting that for the first time in Australia less than half the labour force have a full-time job with paid holidays. Also worth noting is the slowdown in immigration that will reduce economic activity (which is what GDP measures).

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Perrorist
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by Perrorist » 08 Jun 2018, 07:04

Michael Pascoe's take on this: ScoMo's ute delusion

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lynny
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Re: Heading for a crash

Post by lynny » 08 Jun 2018, 11:27

Mr M is the only politician that makes me laugh out loud just as I did when I saw him smirking through his ute based booming economy statement

I must agree that there are a lot of utes about but I have noticed that so many are driven by mid-age men who have lost their jobs and turned to gardening to bring in a buck as they can't get owt else as there is nothing, especially here in Tassie. They need them to carry their equipment about.
No doubt a lot of them work for cash Scotty. Smirk on that!

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